Images of Obaseki vs Iyamu

A Political Scientist Rwang Patrick Stephen at Federal University of Kashere, Gombe State gave an overview of the just concluded Edo Governorship elections between two major  candidates, Governor Godwin Obaseki of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and All Progressives Congress (APC), Pastor Osagie Ize-Iyamu, fine his opinion below: 

The nation democratic expedition seems to be taking shape from the outcome of the just concluded election in Edo state. The election has been rated by senior citizens, watchers of Nigerian Politics, Pundits of political goodwill’s, people of thoughts and of opinions, local and international observers to be the most freest ever conducted state election since 1999.

If the electoral management body INEC repeats same appraisal tendencies in the forthcoming Ondo, the world maybe become very interested in Nigeria’s democratic journey and rate we equal to civilized states in Africa like Ghana and Rwanda among numerous others.

Lower volume of cancellation, limited number of rejected votes and zero level violence, and Edo is the first state to host the National Peace  Committee that enable the contenders to sign a peace accord. 

Early preparation, training, introduction of new insights by INEC, electronic transmitting of results into the porter and good transport logistics lead to the success of the election. Less card reader failure was also recorded. Uploading the polling unit’s results is the finest bride of INEC innovation in the election.

KEY REASONS THAT BROUGHT OBASEKI BACT TO POWER

INCUMBENCY: the governor is the chief security of the state and has all access to all information and his decision and commitment to peace in the state was supremely observed. As the state number one citizen, he got all the favours and take unilateral decisions for progress that later became his advantage as well. Aside the monetary blessings he had, his exposure and likability by people added it upward for him to easily coast to victory. Defeating and incumbent governor is not always easy because it’s a daunting task that comes with heavy price and vigor to accomplish.

THE UNITY OF PDP: unlike the previous election, the PDP was more united and were committed to victory. No house that is divided against itself that will stand. From the pre-decamping of Obaseki to his full joining of the PDP, all the PDP governors were with him. Like the soldier ants will say “its strength in its number”. The PDP use the ‘we’ spirit of Ubuntu to come into victory.

THE STRATEGIC ROLE OF PHILIP SHAIBU:

Edo state deputy is one in a million. He is a royal subordinate who work very hard to assist his boss. Worked daily and nightly to deliver his area and other sister areas alike. All governors must have a hardworking agile and vibrant deputy. He refused to betray his boss and turndown the offer to remain in APC to become it's flag bearer. I wish him well and pray for him to continue doing well.

GRASSROOT MOBILIZATION: Obaseki and Shaibu, the PDP based on its experience work better with lesser noise. The PDP was silent but very active at the hinterlands mobilizing for vote through door to door campaign. Any party that delivers just 45% of total vote will surely win. He ran most campaigns independently and separately with the governor. He deserved a good commendation.

TEACHERS UNION: The Edo teachers worked diligently well to make sure that educational friendly governor as rated return to power. Since June 2019, the educators had promised the governor of their total support to the latter. His contribution to education yields him the goodwill of the Edo people.

DIASPORA RETURNEES: the governor trained and empowered many Libya returnees and others from some countries. He never abandoned them. He set up skill acquisition programs for them and gives them start up cash to enable them settle down and be comfortable. This move of his made all Edo sons and daughters too dear and there for him.

CONCERNS AND DICISIVENESS OF EDO PEOPLE: According to Edo people, they want revolution of people votes been counted to begin in their state. They were unanimously strategic to fight any visible and invisible that will want to manipulate the election. They made up their mind to vote for the incumbent governor and the achieved that purpose via oneness of mind and thought. The victory truly belongs to the masses.

THE OBA FACTOR: Benin is a Kingdom and the King of the land command absolute, complete, total and compressive loyal and respect from the people. The Oba sued for peace and the people complied. He asked to vote independently of war and the obeyed. That loyalty to conscientious voting indirectly yields more favour and blessings for the PDP candidate. The Oba acted openly and cautioned Obaseki over his fight with Oshiomole and he was remorseful.

INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY SANCTION ON THOSE PERCEIVED TO HAVE RIGGED KOGI ELECTION IN 2019: 

Some claimed that INEC chairman don’t want to be barred from entering the US so he decided to play by the rule unlike the Kogi unwarranted inconclusive election conducted by the electoral body. It’s on record that the INEC boss has conducted about 22 inconclusive elections since his tenure. The fear of VISA banned made many political elites to redress and retract their excesses.

UNITY OF PDP GOVERNORS: the role played by the South South States Governors coast the PDP to victory. All the governors of Cross River, Rivers, Akwa-Ibom, Delta and Bayelsa stood firm in defense and in support of Obaseki. Other PDP stalwarts did their bid too. All governors of the party shared their experience and pull ideas together to deliver Obaseki. There is indeed strength in unity. 

EDO WOMEN FRONTIERS: Edo women led by the wives of the governor and his deputy gave huge support to Obaseki and Philip. The women left no stone unturned. Their commitment to help the governor back to office was grandiosely grandiose. When you get mothers involved, victory is always certain. The Edo mothers, market women and entrepreneurs did the job to the hilts.

YOUTHS MOBILIZATION: The youths in 2019 promised the governor of their tremendous support. They kept their words. From the mood of the celebration of victory, you see that it was basically a youth’s project. The governor must remain kind and gracious to them for the sacrifice made.

THE EDO NEW PATH IN PACE SETTING: Edo want to set a record on what they tagged as; 'Edo no bi Lagos' and to retire godfathers and clean the state. To them it was a mandate and Obaseki avail himself to be used to test run the process. It was a tasking exercise that was very expensive to be refers to as a mere game.

FUNDAMENTAL INDICATORS THAT FLAWS IZE IYAMU

FEDERAL ALIGNMENT: The fear of the Federal Government is the beginning of wisdom. POI was carried away by that using Kogi election as yardstick for analysis, not knowing that things have changed. No one should depend on Asorock to win election for him using the armed forces and paramilitary establishments. The presidency was careful too. So that didn’t really work as expected.

MONEY SHARING AND PVC BUYING AS SHOWN IN THE VIRAL V IDEO: Ther was a video making around that PVC’s were been bought by people wearing POI dress purported to be from Abuja. That act angered the people the more and they decided to collect the conditional cash transfer and vote Obaseki. The money was distributed three days to election in all the three senatorial zones.

ARROGANCE OF OSHIOMOLE: Oshiomole is said to be a very arrogant man who wasn’t loyal to Oyegun and work assiduously hard for his removal as APC chairman and lobby to replace him. He doesn’t accept corrections and advice from anyone. His style of leadership made his party to lose states to opposition and he was removed as the national chairman of the party because of his fight with Obaseki that made his ward party chairman to suspend him and subsequently removed. He operates the party like he ran NLC as the chairman.

PAST VIDEO CLIPS OF OSHIOMOLE PRAISING OBASEKI: all the videos of Oshiomole’s good speeches to Obaseki and Governor Gnaduje’s clips showing him collecting bribe were used to melt POI down and generate sympathy for Obaseki. Everything really counted to make him reelected.

DISUNITY IN THE APC: El Rufai had earlier rejected joining forces with other governors to support POI. Aside him, many APC governors never wanted to support the movement based on reasons known to them. There was a silent division among the APC governors, unlike the PDP governors that worked as a team. This is a hidden reality that gave Obaseki an edge as many APC governors still see Obaseki as their friends and support him clandestinely.

GOVERNANCE STYLE OF APC SINCE 2015: Hike in prices of goods and commodities in September, increment of the pump price of fuel, insecurity and banditry etc. are factors that made most voters to protest against the ruling party. Many Nigerians see the APC style of leadership as anti-Masses. 

COURT CASE AGAINST POI: Onlookers and watchers of the building up activities towards the election claimed that the court case against the APC candidate bordering on corruption affected his chances. Some see him as corrupt even as Oshiomole accused him in 2016. He that must come to equity must come with a clean hand.

INTERNAL BETRAYERS IN THE APC: It is very clear that a lot of implants and undercovers worked for Obaseki right in the camp of Izy Iyamo. Those about 42 persons that resigned to join the APC are implants to feed the PDP with strategies of the APC and their moves. Don’t be surprised at this revelation, it’s just politics and the end justifies the means.

EDO PEOPLE DECISION TO MAINTAIN THE STATUES QUO: The cross carpeting of POI affected his popularity. Many of his supporters didn’t follow him to the APC. Obaseki on the other hand was seen as a victim of circumstance because Oshiomole fought him out of the party. POI on the other hand was seen as a tool prepared against Obaseki. He wasn’t a neutral candidate but a boy to be used to oust the governor. The Edo people decided to maintain the status quo and remain constantly steady with the governor. It was just a sheer good luck that helped the governor to be reelected.

Finally, even though the president has commended INEC and congratulated Obaseki, there is still more works to be done. Former president Jonathan has send in his goodwill message as well. Izy Iyamo may be heading to the courts to challenge the results. But it’s unfortunate that he will be fighting a loosed battle in the courts because the margin between them is huge. What happened in Imo state was a judiciary error that can be avoidable, he won’t get such opportunity and the Bayelsa experience will not be his portion as well. We shall learn a lot from his case at the court because he asked his agent not to sign the results sheet as requested and required by law.

Let us at least have a free and fair election to celebrate our 60 years of existence as a country our 106 years of amalgamation in 1914 respectively. INEC must maintain this position. This will enable them to build confidence in those who don’t vote because they claim that votes don’t count. If INEC excel again Ondo election, more Nigerians will surely come out to vote in 2023.

With what happened in Edo, it is clear that power truly belong to the masses. We must draw inferences from it and work hard to implement accordingly. 

Rwang Patrick Stephen

A Political Scientist at Federal University of Kashere, Gombe State

rpstephen@fukashere.edu.ng